Of all the commentary on the huge success that was Labour’s victory in
the Oldham by-election, few if any commentators seem to have noticed one of the
most significant factors.
The key point (I think) is how out of sync the attitudes of the media
(and many members of the professional ‘political’ bubble) are with the general
public. While hostile commentators (incidentally – this does not only mean right-wingers)
were predicting an embarrassingly low majority or maybe even a defeat that they
could place at the door of Jeremy Corbyn, the people of Oldham were delivering
the best ever result for Labour in the seat with a 62.1% share of the vote!
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| Jim McMahon and Jeremy Corbyn after the Oldham By-election |
So
why this disconnect, especially in a week that was supposed to be embarrassing
for Corbyn after the Syria vote? Well, there are a number of reasons, and they
are not good reading for the right – either in or out of the Labour benches. Oh,
and none of them are the sudden conversion of the people of Britain to
revolutionary socialism!
First
is the tendency of too many people inside the political bubble to only hear the
comforting sounds of like-minded ‘bubbleists’ – and by these I mean journalists
and commentators as well as political colleagues – rather than the word on the
streets.
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| A Daily Telegraph image from early 2015. |
For a
long time politicians have tried to make sure that they all look, and sound the
same. Media advisers, strategists and PR people have been telling them for so
long that they need to avoid committed policy statements, need to try and
gather together the ‘middle ground’, that they haven’t noticed that they have
all become the same. That is, of course, they have all become the type of
career, PR-slick, media-savvy, policy-lite, people that delivered us the
Westminster-expenses scandal. The politicians people are thinking of when they
say, “They’re all the same – just out for themselves.”
One
of Jeremy Corbyn’s advantages with that electorate is precisely that he isn’t
that type of politician. He does come across (as incidentally does Nigel
Farage!) as someone who says what he believes, and believes what he says. It is
unlikely (much as I would like it to be the case) that everyone who voted for
Corbyn in the Leadership election, has been part of the huge growth in Labour
membership, or who voted Labour in Oldham are revolutionary socialists. They
are people who want to see a change. In Corbyn’s anti-austerity, compassionate
and principled stance (UNlike Nigel Farage) they think they have found it.
That
backing from ordinary people is significant in another way too, of course. It
means that Corbyn is not a prisoner of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP). He
was (for the most part) not supported as leader by them, but was elected by the
membership as a whole in the way that the right in the party said they wanted.
That also means that he isn’t a ‘prisoner of the unions’ as Miliband was
accused of being! This sudden strength of the ordinary member – and indeed the
large increase in their number, must be a tad worrying for MPs facing
selection! Maybe the urgent hostility of some in the PLP might be to do with a
feeling they don’t have long? Certainly Corbyn seems to be the one playing the
long game, and his perceived ‘light touch’ in response to hostile comments from
supposed colleagues doesn’t seem to be doing him any harm with the public (or
the membership). Maybe this is another example of ‘not just another politician’?
The
second reason for the disconnect is that there are many fewer journalists with
anything like the time to get out of the office or the lobby and actually go
and research a story – to find out what is being said on the streets of Oldham
or wherever. If all you listen to are politicians feeding you their wishes, if
all you check are the tweets of the twitterati, when there is something going
on out there, you’ll not spot it.
Of course
if you work for a media organization with an agenda that swings only one way
then you will also know what you are expected to write, but even if you are a
good political journalist (and there are many), the way to get rid of the
temptation to take the story fed to you, must often be to give into it, -
especially if it is being punted by regular sources.
Thirdly,
and maybe more controversially, am I alone in seeing a reduction in the power
of the media? The reduction in sales of newspapers and the dispersal of ‘news’
around the social media sites may (and it is too early to be definite about
this) herald the relaxing of the grip of the media barons. It certainly appears
that there are increasing examples – not least Corbyn’c election as leader –
where a media line has failed to deliver the proponent’s desired result.
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| On the Streets. Campaigning in Oldham |
Finally
– although this has been mentioned albeit briefly – the other thing that helps
at election time is a good local candidate. Many of the current crop of Westminster
politicians got where they were after carpet-bagging around the country to try
and gain a safe seat. This reinforces the image of the ‘Slick Willie’ brand of
politician. While local council leaders aren’t always the right person for
selection, they usually have a local profile. Where that is a positive one –
and it certainly appears to be in Oldham – a local candidate has considerable
weight.
It
seems clear that if Jeremy Corbyn can maintain the principled and measured
approach he has so far, it will maintain his popularity in the eyes of the
public. If that continues to reflect in political support it may help in
dealing with recalcitrants! It also means that attacks on Corbyn for continuing
to say the things he believes are unlikely to attract much support from the
electorate.
